A daily journal concerning Lake Vermilion and surrounding areas.
Selected real estate, notes, stories, musings, and anecdotes.

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (First Half 2021)

August 2, 2021

As is obvious in this latest graph, the enthusiasm seen in the Lake Vermilion real estate market in the second half of 2020 has continued into the first half of 2021.

There were 47 completed sales (all property types) through June with an average selling price of $283,376.  The selling price range was from $34,000 to $1,250,000.  The average “days on market” for that group was 223 days.

There is plenty of general real estate conversation about a “seller oriented market”.  Indications of this imbalance include low inventory, immediate multiple offers for newly listed properties and final selling prices above the advertised listing price.  Curiously, the 47 sales to date in the 2021 Lake Vermilion market included only 4 sales above the most recent asking price and only 8 sales at the most recent asking price.  All other sales were below asking price.

The second half of 2021 will see the impact of low inventory levels with active buyers unable to act due to a smaller than typical listing selection.  (Completed sales in July 2021 are more inline with historical numbers.)

Please let me know if you have any questions or comments with this information.  Thanks for your time.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents 2021 data.)(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (Final 2020)

January 19, 2021

I have to put an asterisk on the year 2020*.  I think it’s safe to say 2020* be will asterisk heavy for all of time… for numerous widely known reasons.

Look at this 2020* year end graph (see below).

As is obvious, 2020* broke all previous real estate activity records in the Lake Vermilion market.  Land, cabin and home properties were snapped up by anxious buyers who, apparently, were largely driven by the attraction of an up north refuge removed from the pandemic, politics, and other people.

Here are the numbers:

The 2020* Lake Vermilion market logged a total of 101 total sales (that’s +12 from 2015 and +16 from 2016). The total dollar amount sold was $37,379,550 (+$12,901,868 from 2019) with an average sale amount of $370,094 (+$25,338 from 2019).  (These numbers include sales for all property types… homes, cabins, year round, seasonal, vacant lots, road access, water access.)

This increased activity pushed a market that, for several years, has not significantly favored buyer or seller to a market with a seller advantage.  Increased buyer activity reduced the pressure for sellers to negotiate pricing.  The inventory of active Lake Vermilion listings eroded throughout the calendar year to where, at this point in time, inventory numbers are at very low historical levels.

In my post from one year ago (see below) I got one 2020* expectation wrong and one right:

“The buyer and seller mix and level of motivation on both sides should remain mostly balanced with no significant change expected in seller inventory or buyer interest.”  WRONG.

“As always, larger factors on the state, national or global stage may come into play.”  RIGHT.

Again, as a teaser for the coming 2021 market… January 2021, to date, has produced 9 completed and pending sales.  We’ll have to see if that strong start continues throughout the year.

Stay safe.  See you on the lake.

(As with all previous graphs, the grey lines show prior years and the red line represents 2020 data.)(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

2020* = 2020

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (First Half 2020)

July 6, 2020

Many year to date conversations with buyers and sellers in the 2020 Lake Vermilion area real estate market have, at some point, come around to this common inquiry:

“Is the current Lake Vermilion real estate market being affected by:  a) the Covid 19 pandemic  b) social unrest  c)  politics  d)  any combination of these 3 current events?

Individuals involved in this market professionally and for profit probably offer varied responses to these questions.  My response, to date, has been “It’s too early to tell, at least from a closed transaction measurement.”

The year-to-date chart noted below shows a trend currently within historical numbers.  The largest factor so far has been the sluggish start in the first three months of the year that occurred largely before the noted events had become daily headlines.  The reason or reasons for the small number of early closed sales is anyone’s guess.

The second half of the year will, as always, reveal the full story.

I do see that the number of pending sales, at this writing, are near typical numbers.  That fact might suggest that these greater issues may not have a large impact on the 2020 Lake Vermilion area market.

That’s not a call.  We’ll have to see how it plays out… hopefully with an overall sense of future optimism.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents 2020 data.)(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (Final 2019)

February 3, 2020

2019 can now formally be referred to as “recent history”.

Market activity for the first half of the year suggested strong performance with a shot at near record annual sales. However, completed sale numbers after the summer months lapsed into the “less than stellar” category which resulted in a year end performance similar to 2018.

The 2019 Lake Vermilion market logged a total of 71 total sales. The total dollar amount was $24,477,682 with an average sale amount of $344,756. (These numbers include sales for all property types… homes, cabins, year round, seasonal, vacant lots, road access, water access.)

At this point in time, there is no indication the typical factors that normally affect this local real estate market will be influential in 2020. The buyer and seller mix and level of motivation on both sides should remain mostly balanced with no significant change expected in seller inventory or buyer interest. As always, larger factors on the state, national or global stage may come into play.

As a teaser for the coming 2020 market… January 2020 produced 6 completed sales. That broke a record for the month that has been in place for 15 years. (Of course, one point of data really isn’t a significant indication of anything.)

(As with all previous graphs, the grey lines show prior years and the red line represents 2019 data.)(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (First Half 2019)

July 8, 2019

It’s 2019 and we are half way through the calendar year.  The year to date activity in the local real estate market is very similar to 2018.  My comments from one year ago are applicable to this year:

“Mid summer sale totals are not necessarily a great indicator of the final calendar year market performance.  This mostly recreational market typically logs more completed sales in the second half of the selling season.

Having noted that and as is obvious in this edition of the graph… year to date 2018 is lagging behind other recent years.  However, it appears mid summer activity has increased to the point where lost ground may be regained in the next few months.”

At this point in time it’s fair to label this update a “Summer Rerun”.  The next few months will reveal either a  familiar, or, perhaps, a surprise ending.  Check back soon.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents 2019 data.)

(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (Final 2018)

February 19, 2019

The 2018 Lake Vermilion real estate market finished with 72 completed sales.

There is a minor trend observed since 2015 with successively fewer sales each year during that four year time frame… 89/2015, 85/2016, 75/2017, 72/2018.

The total dollar amount for sales in 2018 was $23,227,050.  The average sales amount for that group was $322,597.  Both of those numbers increased slightly from 2017 despite 3 fewer transactions.

2018-2019 brought Lake Vermilion a bonafide winter with subzero temperatures and ample snow for outdoor fun.

As a reminder… the historical average ice out date for the lake is April 30th.  That’s only 70 days to get ready for your Lake Vermilion summer.  Get on it.

And stay tuned.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents current year data.)(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (Through The 3rd Quarter Of 2018)

October 8, 2018

We’re now at the nine month milepost for the 2018 Lake Vermilion real estate market.

As is nearly predicable, the early months of the second half of the selling season produce a larger number of closed sales.  2018 ramped up to stay on par with the activity level of the previous several years.

To match the break out years of 2015 and 2016 and additional 30+ closed transactions are needed.  At this point of the selling season that seems unlikely.

The current number of pending sales would suggest overall sales for 2018 will be similar to 2017.

Weather conditions have a stronger influence on sales activity in late summer and early fall.  Recent cool and wet conditions (with a glimpse or two of snow) are not welcome factors for active sellers.  Smart buyers will “bundle up” and use this time of year to their advantage.

Stay tuned.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents current year data.)

(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (First Half 2018)

July 23, 2018

We’re half way through the 2018 calendar year and at the selling season mid-point for the Lake Vermilion area real estate market.

Mid summer sale totals are not necessarily a great indicator of the final calendar year market performance.  This mostly recreational market typically logs more completed sales in the second half of the selling season.

Having noted that and as is obvious in this edition of the graph… year to date 2018 is lagging behind other recent years.  However, it appears mid summer activity has increased to the point where lost ground may be regained in the next few months.

Stay tuned.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents 2018 data.)

(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (Final 2017)

January 8, 2018

Lake Vermilion real estate market sales for the 2017 calendar year finished a distant third to the previous two calendar years.

The brisk mid year sales gave way to a significant end of year fade into the stretch which resulted in a final  2017 completed sale count of 75 transactions.

The total dollar amount for sales in 2017 was $23,661,600.  The average sales amount for that group was $315,488.

I added three graphs to show additional historical market comparisons.  Let me know if you have any questions or if you would like more information.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents 2017 data.)

(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

Comparative Lake Vermilion YTD Sales (through the first half of 2017)

July 31, 2017

Completed Lake Vermilion real estate market sales through June in the 2017 calendar year have been pretty respectable.

It is the second half of the year that will determine if this waterfront property market can remain strong with a finish comparable to the previous four years.

The total dollar amount for sales in the first 6 months of 2017 was $7,997,500.  The average sales amount for that group was $285,625.

If you have an interest… I am also happy to provide additional information on the Lake Vermilion real estate market.

(As always, the grey lines show previous years and the red line represents the 2017 YTD sales.)

(All data was sourced from the Range Multiple Listing Service.)

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